Roger Federer [3] vs. Marin Cilic [7]
“Does Cilic have a chance?” is the question of the hour at the All England Club. The answer is an emphatic yes. In fact, there may be as many good reasons for picking him as there are for picking his more famous and accomplished opponent.
Yes, Federer has a 6-1 record against Cilic, but their matches have tightened considerably over the last three years. At the Rogers Cup in 2014, Federer won in three close sets. Then, a month later, Cilic stunned him in the U.S. Open semifinals, 6-3, 6-4, 6-4. While Federer avenged that defeat in the Wimbledon quarterfinals last year, he had to pull off an epic, match-point-saving high-wire act to do it. The lesson we can take from those three matches is that Cilic’s game matches up well against Federer’s these days. His serve is strong enough to keep him close, and he has the reach and the two-handed backhand to do damage on his return. At the Open, and through the first two sets at Wimbledon last year, Cilic dominated the rallies.
If Cilic’s game is strong enough to stay with Federer’s, the question becomes psychological. How will he react if he builds a lead this time? It isn’t so much whether he believes he can win the match—of course he believes that. But does he believe he should win this match? I liked the way Cilic handled his first Wimbledon semi; things could have gotten a lot more complicated against Sam Querrey, but Cilic made sure they didn’t. Querrey, of course, is not Federer, but Cilic knows he can win majors, and he’s unlikely to be satisfied with a close loss and a moral victory on Sunday.
