The Week in Preview: Gentlemen, Restart Your Engines

The race to the ATP’s year-end championships in London has done its job well this fall. You can see its effects each week, in every tournament, as half a dozen players chase points, and compete with a little something extra, across the globe.

It’s true again this week. As the women stage their finale in Singapore (see my preview here), virtually all of the top men have gathered in either Basel or Valencia—they’re running out of places to make their moves. Below is a look at what we might see in both locales.

Basel, Switzerland
$1,860,630; 500 points
Hard courts
Draw is here

Roger Federer, the top seed, and Rafael Nadal, the second seed, aren’t playing Basel to get to the World Tour Finals; they’ve both qualified for London. They’re playing, as much as anything else, for the money. This year Federer resolved a long-running dispute with the director of his hometown event over his appearance fee. Nadal also has a deal with the tournament; otherwise, it seems doubtful that he would make the trip with a case of appendicitis. But we’ll take Rog, who opens against Gilles Muller, and Rafa, who opens against Simone Bolelli, any way we can get them.

This tournament is of more pressing concern to Milos Raonic and Grigor Dimitrov, two young guns who once looked like a lock for London. Now each could use a win: Dimitrov, despite reaching the final in Stockholm on Sunday, stands at No. 11, three hundred points behind the current No. 8, Andy Murray. Meanwhile, Raonic lost early last week in Moscow and dropped two spots, to No. 10. But he’s still just 100 points out of the running, with two events to play. In Basel, Dimitrov will open against German teen Alexander Zverev, and could play Federer in the third round; Raonic will start against Steve Johnson, and could play Nadal in the semis.

Also here: Stan Wawrinka. The hard work is over for Stan; he has already qualified for London. Maybe that’s why he hasn’t been a factor this fall.

First-round matches to watch: David Goffin vs. Dominic Thiem; Ernests Gulbis vs. Borna Coric

Second-round match to (possibly) watch: Federer vs. Jerzy Janowicz

Valencia, Spain
$1,909,240; 500 points
Hard courts
Draw is here

Valencia can't match Basel's star power on court, but it does have star-chitecture surrounding it. Since 2009, the tournament has been played inside L’Agora, the belly-of-the-whale building designed for the tournament by Spain’s Santiago Calatrava. It looks great, and, even better, it works. That's always an iffy proposition with one of Calatrava’s creations.

Valencia’s own David Ferrer is the top seed. Ferru will have to make a quick recovery from a bitterly disappointing defeat in the Vienna final on Sunday—he was up 5-3 in the third against Murray before losing the last four games; this grizzled veteran appeared to be on the verge of tears by the end. Even worse, Ferrer is currently in a two-man battle with Murray for the last spot in London. Murray, who is in Ferrer’s half here, is eighth; the Spaniard is 110 points behind in ninth. Ferrer is also just 10 points ahead of No. 10 Raonic; that could end up being the real two-man battle, if Nadal pulls out of London. Ferrer will start against Andreas Seppi in Valencia, and could face countryman Roberto Bautista Agut in the third round. Murray will begin against Jurgen Melzer.

On the opposite side from Ferrer and Murray is yet another end-of-year warrior, Tomas Berdych. After his title in Stockholm this weekend, the Birdman is a little more comfortable in the seventh spot, 400 hundred points ahead of Murray. He’ll start with Pablo Andujar, and could see John Isner in the third round.

First-round match to watch: Murray vs. Melzer. These two have played some long ones. Murray is obviously the hotter, and more motivated player, and he's coming off one of the grittiest comebacks of his career, over Ferrer in Vienna. But will his excellent European adventure burn him out at some point?

Gentlemen, restart your engines.